Cloud9 vs Gambit Esports

I'm going to post up a value play here in tomorrows first match in the Round 2 of the Play-In to Worlds 2018:

Cloud9 (NA) is facing off against Gambit Esports (CIS) and most probably think Cloud9 is the clear favorites in this match up, and especially over a BO5.

However, the odds at 1xBet does seem to be way off if you ask me. If you are given 9.20 in decimal odds on Gambit to advance to Worlds 2018, that means you need them to win only about 11% of the time for this bet to have positive expected value.

But do they even have that much of a chance over 5 games? I believe they do. Cloud9 looked solid in their second day, but showed that they were a bit shaky during their first match against DetonatioN FocusMe. Gambit looked good against KLG, but G-Rex was too much. And G-Rex looked pretty great too to be honest.

I think anything is able to happen tomorrow and don't believe that their chances of winning is as low as 10%. Something like 20% or maybe even higher seems more fair, and that makes this a good bet.

I will only bet 2 units given the high volatility of this bet.