XPC vs Berzerk

Berzerk ranked #186 from Germany is playing against XPC ranked #97 from Romania in the Gfinity Winter Series 2018 Europe. The tournament has 16 teams competing for a prize pool of $15,000.

This is a best of 3 lower brackets round 2 match.

Berzerk lost to EURONICS 2-1 and then fell to lower bracket where they won against Asterion 2-1. XPC won against Endpoint 2-0 and then failed to Bpro 2-0. They fell in the lower bracket to play against Berzerk.

Maps performance for team Berzerk: Train is the only map with 66,7% win rate, all other maps have a negative win rate. Cobblestone 45,5%, Overpass 42,9%, Nuke 40,0%, Mirage 38,5%, Dust2 37,5%, Inferno 35,7% and Cache 33,3%.

Map highlight for team XPC: Inferno is at 81,8% win rate, Train 61,5%, Mirage 59,5%, Cache 53,1% and Dust2 50,0%. Their worst maps are Overpass 43,8%, Cobblestone 33,3% and Nuke 0,0%.

Berzerk has played only six maps in March and had 3 wins and 3 losses. XPC has played 24 maps in March and had 17 wins and 7 losses.

Ok, so XPC has a better map pool, and they had more wins in previous matches. But the thing that worries me is that they lost to Bpro 0-16 and 1-16. That is insane! Also, Berzerk won against Asterion, a clearly better team than them. Both of these two teams stand no chance for 1,2,3 place but in this matchup XPC is a better team overall, so there could be and throw incoming.

Let's look at the odds. XPC 1,79, Berzerk 2,05. The odds for -1,5 handicap are most appealing, and i think something of those two will happen. But i don't know who will win :) So my bet here will be under 2,5 maps @1,83 odds.

Good luck to all who bet and don't forget to gamble responsibly!