Team Expert vs Vexed Gaming
Vexed has already won twice versus expert in United Masters League, and the names of expert doesn't shout too much for me to believe they will take this one. I believe the algorithms base a lot of the odds on the German teams they play against.
Luckily this means the odds for Vexed has shot up.
If they do their homework correctly the map pick phase will be like this:
1. expert removed Mirage (56% Winrate Vexed)
2. Vexed removed Train (64% Winrate expert)
3. expert removed Inferno (31% Winrate Vexed)
4. Vexed removed Nuke (55% Winrate expert)
5. expert picked Dust 2 (0% Winrate Vexed)
6. Vexed picked Cache (33% Winrate expert)
The pick of expert is pretty 50/50 as you normally don't draft Dust 2 because anything can happen, but it seems to be the correct move in this case as none of the teams play Overpass. Dust 2 could be replaced with Inferno.