mousesports vs OG

mousesports ranked #4 from Europe (mix of players) are clashing against team OG ranked #19 from Europe (also a mix of players) in the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe that has 18 teams competing for the prize pool of TBA. This tournament is played online, and this is the best of 3 Group C type of match.

mousesports map performance in the last three months: Mirage is at 100,0% win rate on only one played map - WIN/DREW/LOST - 1/0/0, Dust2 87,5% on eight played maps 7/0/1, Inferno 75,0% on four played maps 3/0/1, Train 75,0% on four played maps 3/0/1, Vertigo 50,0% on two played maps 1/0/1, and Nuke with 40,0% win rate on five played maps 2/0/3.

They played three maps in March and won two, converted, those three maps were Bo3, and the score was 2-1 in favor of FaZe. In February, they played 21 maps and won 15; in other words, they played eight games and won six.

OG map highlights in the previous three months: Overpass is at 100,0% win rate on only one played map - WON/TIE/LOSS - 1/0/0, Dust2 62,5% on eight played maps 5/0/3, Inferno 50,0% on six played maps 3/0/3, Train 40,0% on five played maps 2/0/3, Mirage 33,3% on three played maps 1/0/2, Nuke 20,0% on five played maps 1/0/4.

They played nine maps in March and won five; in other words, they played four matches and won two. During February, they played 17 maps and won seven, converted, they played seven games and won three. During January, they played two maps only, one against AGO and lost 10-16, and against SKADE 16-13 on Train.

OK, so two nice wins yesterday in the bag let's see how today, performs. mousesports are 3rd in Group C with one win and -1 round difference, while OG are 2nd with one win and +12 round difference.

So mousesports won against Clan FaZe with 2-1 (9-16 on Nuke, 16-14 on Train, and 16-12 on Dust2), and that was their only game in March, so it is a bit tricky to see how they played and even more important how they TEND to play, but winning against FaZe is no small deal, so we can expect them to outperform today again.

But, on the other side, we have OG, who also won their initial match in this group against weakened TYLOO 2-0 (16-11 on Inferno, and 16-9 on Dust2). TYLOO is out of control so this win is nothing to wonder about, but they lost much more in those games before, with not aking over nine rounds per game. Even by other parameters like average round lost when their team won, mousesports are better with 10.07 over OG who have 11,25, and also better in average rounds won when their team lost, where mousesports have 9,50 over OG who have 9,00.

Now, let's see how maps perform: Last seven maps for mousesports were Dust2 x3, Nuke x2, Inferno x1, Train x1 and their stats for D2 are 88% win, and Nuke with 40% win. While for OG those were D2 x3, Inferno x2, Train x1, Nuke x1, and their win percent for D2 is 62%, and Inferno 50%. From these stats, we can see that D2 is mousesports first pick, and they tend to win on it, while Inferno is first picked fo OG, but mousesports have 25% more win percentage on that map, so we can expect a most certain win for mousesports in this matchup. It is a bit risky to bet on -1,5 handicap for mousesports since OG can always snatch at least one map so i will go with a plain win for them in this matchup, the odds are small, but i will go with a BIG bet.

Good luck to all who bet, and don't forget to gamble my fellow bettors responsibly.