Astralis vs Fnatic

Astralis ranked #2 from Denmark are clashing against team fnatic ranked #3 from Sweden in the ESL One: Road to Rio - Europe that has 16 teams competing for the prize pool of $115,000. This tournament is played online, and this is the best of 3 type of match.

Astralis map performance in the last three months: Train is at 75,0% win rate on four played maps - WIN/DREW/LOSE - 3/0/1, Overpass 75,0% on eight played maps 6/0/2, Vertigo 66,7% on six played maps 4/0/2, Inferno 57,1% on seven played maps 4/0/3, Dust2 50,0% on ten played maps 5/0/5, and Nuke with 50,0% win rate on eight played maps 4/0/4.

They played 18 maps in April and won 11; in other words, they played seven matches and won four. During March, they played 12 maps and won eight, converted, they played five games and won four. In February, they played 13 maps and won seven; in other words, they played six games and won three.

fnatic map highlights in the previous three months: Nuke is at 80,0% win rate on five played maps - WON/TIED/LOST - 4/0/1, Inferno 75,0% on 12 played maps 9/0/3, Dust2 60,0% on ten played maps 6/0/4, Mirage 58,3% on 12 played maps 7/0/5, Train 50,0% on two played maps 1/0/1, Overpass 50,0% on eight played maps 4/0/4, and Vertigo with 25,0% win rate on four played maps 1/0/3.

They played 23 maps in April and won 14, converted, they played eight matches and won six. During March, they played 18 maps and won 11; in other words, they played seven games and won five. In February, they played 12 maps and won seven.

OK, so this tournament is a qualifying tournament, i mean ESL is a very famous tourney with a great prize pool and even greater reputation to maintain since it is played in Europe, BUT don't forget that ESL One Rion 2020 has $2,000,000 prize pool hahahahahhahaha :D INSANE!

OK, so let's start our analysis...

Astralis is currently 2nd with one win and +14 round difference; they defeated Complexity 2-1 (16-4 on Vertigo, 13-16 on Nuke, and 16-11 on Train). While fnatic are 5th with one loss and -5 round difference; they lost against EZ ENCE 0-2 (14-16 on Dust2, and 13-16 on Mirage). Astralis won 4/5 recent matches while fnatic has 3/5 score. I won't look at the rankings since it is #2 & #3 there is very little difference when Tier 1 teams are clashing, it's in the finesses. For Astralis, all their players have over 1,00 rating, with gla1ve having the lowest of 1,03, and device having the biggest 1,18 rating. For fnatic the worst is Golden with 0,95 and the best if KRIMZ with 1,13 rating.

The average round lost in wins for Astralis is 8,31, and the average round won in losses is 11,06.

While for fnatic the average rounds lost in wins is 9,90, and average rounds won in losses is 10.79. From these stats, we can see that Astralis leads 2-0; they have better score in both segments.

Let's see more about those map stats...

The first pick for Astralis is Nuke, where they have 50% wins on eight played maps, while for fnatic it is Inferno, where they have 75%, wins on 12 played maps (+ they have 5 maps winning streak). The first ban for Astralis is oddly Mirage, where they have 0% wins on no played maps (they perma ban it obviously), and the first ban for fnatic is Vertigo, where they have 25% wins on four played maps. Head-to-head the score is 67 AST vs 62 FNC, the last five matchups are 3-2 in favor of Astralis.

I mean, letting Complexity to win one map against you and then letting them get 11 rounds in the next map is not so great for Astralis, while on the other side it is very odd that fnatic lost to ENCE, i mean, it was close, but still they lost. I will go with +1,5 handicap on fnatic, the odds are great, and they should definitely win Nuke, Inferno, or the decider Overpass.

Good luck to all who bet, and don't forget to gamble responsibly!